NEC wants Blu-ray control

50% of nothing is still nothing. Blu ray is finsihed and will live out the remaining years at a niche status. If Blu Ray gets above 25%-35% of the market I would be completely blown away. Its already going on Year #3 and the format is still catching up to what HD DVD gave you out of the box on launch day.

Toshib's super upconvertion will blur the line between real HD and upconvertion just that much more and will make Blu Ray's job just that much more impossible. Sony finally wins a format war only to find out the format itself is doomed.

In the end Sony might end up making a few dollars off of Blu Ray but considering the amount of time, money, and work that went into the format its basically guaranteed to be the single biggest failure in the history of the home theater market. Sony invested over 3 billion just in the R&D phase alone. Then you add on the billions they have lost and continue to lose on the PS3, the lost profits from the paystation division stemming directly from the choice to put a BD player in every PS3 and the delays that were encountered because of that decision. Basically anything less than Blu Ray taking over the Market from SD DVD and staying on top for a good 4-5 years would be considered a failure of maga proportions.

I would guess blu-ray adoption would continue to increase, as HDTV option increases. If HDTV adoption is slow, then so would blu-ray.

I'm still 50/50 if I think bluray will go the way of laserdisc. DVD's had the advantage of having a purpose on regular tv's, bluray has the disadvantage of needing HDTV's to give the consumer a benefit, so they have to rely on the adoption of other technology.

Your 100% incorrect. HDTV adoption rates are literally off the charts. They are flying off of shelves. Your assuming that everyone who buys an HDTV wants to buy HD content for that TV and that is where your going wrong. The majority of people buying HDTV's have very little interest in HD content especially Blu Ray. People are buying HDTV's for lots of reasons. Sure some are buying them and are legitimately seeking HD content but most are 100% content with SD upconvertion and a few HD channels from Cable. You have alot of people buying HDTV's simply because they look cool, are very thin & light compared to old school TV's, can be hung on walls and is basically this decades must have cool item.

Again there are certainly some people who are legitimately seeking HD content but they are in the minority and even the ones that are seeking HD content dont have to buy Blu ray. They can again just get some HD cable package and upconvert thier SD DVD's.

The bottom line is Blu Ray is simply not that important of an upgrade to most people unlike the switch from VHS to DVD which most people couldnt wait to do. Blu Ray is to the point where it is only going to see majot growth by infiltrating the general population and the bottom line is very few people in the general population want anything to do with Blu Ray and that isnt going to change simply by lowering the price, at least not for the majoirty. Most people are perfectly conetent with SD DVD and who can blame them. Its the most successful home theater format that has ever existed. It has a MASSIVE library of titles and the prices for most titles is pretty damn cheap. They are easy to use, have extras that people enjoy and the Jump to Blu Ray just pales in comaprison to the difference between the VHS DVD switch.

Sure Blu Rays numbers will continue to rise, but they wont rise high enough to ever get the format out of niche status. Again I cant see Blu Ray getting past 25-35% of the market. Its been 3 years and its at less than 2% now. Its not like Blu Ray is competing with a failing format. SD DVD is still thriving and as I have stated a couple of times on these board, SD DVD grew by another 2 million homes in 2007, more than HD DVD and Blu Rays numbers combined.

Dont get me wrog I dont think Blu ray will cease production of throw in the towel. Even with 25% of the market, some of the companies wil make significant money. Sony just wont be one of them as they have invested more money into Blu Ray then they will most likely ever make back.

"HDTV adoption rates are literally off the charts. They are flying off of shelves."

They are not. 40% price drops are on the way since they are gathering dust on the shelves. The economy is a mess in the US and people are not buying these things. The inventories are huge and virtually all manufacturers are dropping prices on LCD and Plasma. Bluray is is BIG trouble. People don't NEED this crap, they are losing their jobs and can't afford gas or food.

Best Buy
LN52A650 was$3199.99 now $2499.99 price drop of $200+$500 off sale
LN46A650 was $2499.99 now $2059.99 price drop of $200+$240 off sale

http://hdguru.com/swelling-inventories-force-another-hdtv-price-drop/254/

@ Crabbyappleton - You're right about gas and food. The Canadian economy hasn't been hit as bad (yet) as the American economy, but gas here is $1.31 a litre ($4.90/gallon USD) and food prices have also gone up (thanks biofuel). My wife and I aren't going anywhere this summer for vacation. Who wants to spring for a new HDTV/Blu-ray setup? People need to eat more than they need to see the fine detail of the plugs on Bill Shatner's head.

As a side note, and in keeping with the idea of how some Americans see Canadians, when I'm not drinking beer in the Rockies I'm trying to keep my igloo from melting thanks to global warming. That is all.

Heh. The world is bigger than N-America. In Holland and many other European countries everybody wants a HDTV to view the big summer sport events (EC Football, Tour de France and Olympics) in HD.

@4x5photo

Are you from the feature? You can guess 10 years from now?
DVD is running 12 years and you can't compare to Blu-ray in their 3rd year now. When DVD was 3 years old people were talking just like you now, because DVD is expensive, blank media is expensive, lots of DRM bla bla. Until now you can still find VHS in the local stores or even in some Blockbuster and Hollywoodvideo!

During DVD time we encountered global economic resession and all and it still survive. I have no doubt that Blu-ray will survive and take over DVD in the future. Just not today or in a year. Numbers are growing like it supposed to be so come back in 10 years and post again if anything changes.

HDTV sales in the UK are also very high, in fact you wont find a TV in a shop that isn't HD. Some brands and models have waiting lists as demand is outstripping supply.
One shop keeper i spoke to also blamed the recent European football championship, the Wimbledon Tennis tournament and the upcoming Olympic games for the fast rise in HDTV sales, and not to mention a big rise in sales on HD DVB-S settop boxes.

Yes I agree with my European friends HD-TV and high def is booming over here. You can't buy non-HD equipment in the shops. Price stunting is really progressing after the soccer championships. More and more channels are high def nowadays so it makes sense to actually move on. Also, video rental stores seem to get more blu-ray titles. So I don't know about our American friends, but make sure you don't end up with old shit as the only one in the world :P

@M|P3 You may feel it is booming, but studies show that there is a small install base <2 million and of those, a large percentage are watching SD on these sets. I think I read that the hope is by 2012 that there will be some serious HD audience percentages. Maybe by then, upwards of 70% of Europeans will have HDTV capable sets. But, I still think that this all depends on what happens in the markets in the coming months...the stock markets that is.

If the US economy tanks, I am afraid of the impact in the interdependant world market these days. I could see the euro bubble burst as a lot of the crooked and failing securities in the US were offloaded to folks to the east. '

The freakin oil speculators and our busy body president along with the corporate shills we call congress and senate has things all screwed up and artificially inflated.

If the european market was so dominant in the HDTV realm, I doubt that the US HDTV sets would be getting prices slashed by 40-50%! Especially, when the dollar is worth so little...I think a euro is about 1.58 at the moment.

I hope I am wrong, but I think we haven't seen the bottom yet and I suspect that it will not be totally isolated to the United States. I think I should be buying Chinese money right now!!
Read this if you don't believe me:
"Europes economy takes a hit"

"Just a few weeks ago, Europe thought it could escape the worst of the global slowdown. Now it looks like the euro zone, the world's second-largest economy, is headed for a hard landing and perhaps recession, compounding growth troubles around the world."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121614579356955235.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

If the USA economy tanks, the rest of the world feels it. You might not think that it will but the USA drives alot of the world economy. The only thing I can think of that might drive up sells of HDTV sets is the analog to digital turnover at the end of February 2009. Other than that, with gas prices staying or getting worse, I wouldn't expect much this summer or fall as far as the economy picking up. Matter of fact, this winter, it could get worse (oil prices).

Yeah, we are already hearing that our heating bills will go up 25 to 35% over last year this winter! Thank goodness I can afford it, but I feel sorry for so many that have these useless dime a dozen retail jobs in the US. E.g. Kohls, Target, WalMart etc..That is about all that is left, unless you are in the service industry. GM and other manufacturers are laying off 10's of thousands every week. It's gonna get ugly.

Not sure about other countries, but in Germany there is only one or two Free-To-Air HD (special interest) channels and 2 pay channels. Not exactly what is required to call it "booming". Without HD channels nobody's going to buy HD set-top boxes and without these boxes no channels will air HD-TV - two channels already stopped their HD transmissions a few months ago.

Most of the TV sets carry an "HD ready" label with a 1366*768 resolution, only few and only big TV sets are actually "Full HD" with a 1920*1080 resolution and most people seem to prefer a cheap DVD player over rather more expensive Blu-Ray equipment

Holy crap people get with the times...I bought my first HDTV back in Jan. 2003 and just recently upgraded to my second one. If a guy like me can buy and HDTV and keep it for 4+ years so can you.

@ BluBalls

We're not all slaves to fashion. It's nice that you have people waiting on you hand and foot and you light your Cuban cigars with American $100 bills, but not everyone has the means to buy a new television set every few years.

P.S. - Can I borrow $20 off you till next payday? I'm good for it... ask anybody.