PCs down, netbooks to rise in 2009

With the exception of netbooks, it’s going to be a tough year for personal computer sales, industry analyst group Gartner predicts.

In 2009, the group expects PC sales to fall by a record 11.9 percent from the year before. Previously, 2001 held that dubious distinction with a 3.2 percent drop in sales. Even if PC purchases don’t decrease quite as much as Gartner expects, a record-breaking bad year for computer sales seems to be at hand.

On the bright side, mobile PC sales are expected to increase, buoyed by nearly double the netbook sales over last year. Gartner says 21 million of these mini-notebooks will be sold in 2009, compared to 11.7 million units last year. Still, they will only account for less than an eighth of total notebook computer sales, which will see a 9 percent increase overall.

Research Director Angela McIntyre said in a press release that falling netbook prices will be a big driver for sales in 2009. Last year, the average price for a mini-notebook with an 8.9-inch screen and 160 GB hard drive was $450, and Gartner expects that average to drop by $50 this year.

"Mature markets continue to be the primary consumers of mini-notebooks, but as prices continue to fall, they are likely to attract increasing numbers of emerging market buyers," McIntyre said. There’s an excellent Clive Thompson article in this month’s Wired explaining why netbooks will take over, nicely rounding out the hard data of Gartner’s predictions.

The simple answer for why PC sales will suffer is, of course, the failing economy. But Gartner says that venders reacted faster to the economic climate at the end of 2008 than they did in 2001, sending signals up the supply chain to slow down production. As a result, Gartner believes inventory will be held at "historically low levels" this year, so expect consumer demand to actually outpace the amount that retailers put on their shelves.