The future of Blu-ray remains very confusing, as some analysts have predicted the format will have a hard time surving past 2012, which is a mere three years away. Other analysts predict Blu-ray to eventually topple DVD, but at the cost of several more years and millions in advertising from Sony and other Blu-ray supporters.
It’s no wonder many people still aren’t sure what’s happening — especially since Blu-ray had a rough 2008 — but another published study indicates Blu-ray will have its time in the spotlight, but not any time soon. In 2008, DVDs still dominate the market with 97.1 percent of the market, but it will begin to continually lose market share to the high-definition Blu-ray format as the years pass.
SNL Kagan’s "The State of Home Video" study predicts Blu-ray will have 59.7 percent market share in 2014, and will have $13.1 billion in estimated revenue. Three years later, in 2017, Blu-ray will have 73.8 percent and have $15.6 billion revenue.
"Blu-ray will be the driving force behind the video retail market throughout the next decade," SNL Kagan analyst Wade Holden said in a statement. "The current economic climate, however, will slow the growth of this new format and likely keep it from reaching the heights that it may have in better times. VOD services will continue to improve in both technology and content over the next decade and begin to draw consumers away from Blu-ray and DVD by 2017."
SNL Kagan predicts that the year 2010 will be the first year that Blu-ray sees success in the retail market space. According to the report, standalone Blu-ray player sales will grow from $255.4 million in 2008 up to $1.3 billion in 2010.
As manufacturers begin to lower prices on standalone Blu-ray players, which is something many of you have wanted for months, consumer demand should rise. There is still concern that digital downloads will continue to become popular and eventually trump physical formats, though various analysts have different opinions on the matter.
Despite all the uncertainty, it’ll be extremely interesting to see how Blu-ray does over the next few years.
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37 Comments
I'm looking forward to a study next week that says Blu-ray will die off before 2014. I kid, I kid...
In all seriousness, I think it's only a matter of time before Blu-ray is able to topple DVD; and agree that it's still years away from happening, especially if the price of both standalone players and Blu-ray movies remain expensive.
In all seriousness, I think it's only a matter of time before Blu-ray is able to topple DVD; and agree that it's still years away from happening, especially if the price of both standalone players and Blu-ray movies remain expensive.
- guest
- Posts: 15288
- Posted on: 06 Feb 09 21:03
More amazing fud for today! Hmm I guess if I controlled the market and said VHS is coming back, and then forcably enter the product back into stores, I could make bogus claims like this too.
it is going to topple DVD, and you want to know why?
once bluray rewriters and blu media come down in price, what do you think joe public are going to use to back stuff up?
i could clear my hard drive with 4 bluray discs!!
i would need 18 4.5 DVD's to clear my hard drive.
i could get my entire movie collection on 10 bluray disks!!
once bluray rewriters and blu media come down in price, what do you think joe public are going to use to back stuff up?
i could clear my hard drive with 4 bluray discs!!
i would need 18 4.5 DVD's to clear my hard drive.
i could get my entire movie collection on 10 bluray disks!!
What is so bogus about it? Are you saying that it will happen sooner? I found the article inline to what is going on now. DVD still has a %90+ market share and that will take time to degrade that market share which the article alludes to.
Now, Bluray could grab the market faster but it won't happen strictly in set top-box sales. What they need to do, if they were smart enough to realize it, is drive DVD out of the PC market as a storage medium. Do that and DVD would collapse in the set-top box market naturally.
Now, Bluray could grab the market faster but it won't happen strictly in set top-box sales. What they need to do, if they were smart enough to realize it, is drive DVD out of the PC market as a storage medium. Do that and DVD would collapse in the set-top box market naturally.
LOL, steveo119, we posted at the same time nearly saying the same thing. Right at the moment, I have nearly 100 DVDR's of backed up lossless music. DVD is just not cutting it anymore as a storage medium. Bluray burners need to come down to at least $100 and the media to $1/disk. Right now the cost/GB is really expensive compared to DVD.
- guest
- Posts: 15288
- Posted on: 06 Feb 09 21:26
Bull%$%#
When it comes to market predictions for the long term they can’t usually be this accurate. In my opinion is just an insult to the reader’s intelligence to come up with numbers like 59.7 % or 73.8%.
Calculations like these to the decimal point should always be taken with a grain of salt. Come on you guys can't be serious. This has nothing to do with scientific method whatsoever. Portraying false accuracy to the susceptible reader is not the way to go. I'd like to see how they came up with that number. They probably wanted to sound more serious by publishing the exact number their calculator fed them but in the end this just shows how unprofessional they are. Hell maybe they just made up those numbers. (Say a 75 is now 73,8 and 60 becomes 59,7 to sound better.
Edit by admin: removed useless encoding characters
When it comes to market predictions for the long term they can’t usually be this accurate. In my opinion is just an insult to the reader’s intelligence to come up with numbers like 59.7 % or 73.8%.
Calculations like these to the decimal point should always be taken with a grain of salt. Come on you guys can't be serious. This has nothing to do with scientific method whatsoever. Portraying false accuracy to the susceptible reader is not the way to go. I'd like to see how they came up with that number. They probably wanted to sound more serious by publishing the exact number their calculator fed them but in the end this just shows how unprofessional they are. Hell maybe they just made up those numbers. (Say a 75 is now 73,8 and 60 becomes 59,7 to sound better.
Edit by admin: removed useless encoding characters
- guest
- Posts: 15288
- Posted on: 06 Feb 09 21:31
Ok my post was supposed to be this. All the formatting shit wasn' there when I clicked Post.
Bull%$%#
When it comes to market predictions for the long term they can’t usually be this accurate. In my opinion is just an insult to the reader’s intelligence to come up with numbers like 59.7 % or 73.8%.
Calculations like these to the decimal point should always be taken with a grain of salt. Come on you guys can't be serious. This has nothing to do with scientific method whatsoever. Portraying false accuracy to the susceptible reader is not the way to go. I'd like to see how they came up with that number. They probably wanted to sound more serious by publishing the exact number their calculator fed them but in the end this just shows how unprofessional they are. Hell maybe they just made up those numbers. (Say a 75 is now 73,8 and 60 becomes 59,7 to sound better.
Bull%$%#
When it comes to market predictions for the long term they can’t usually be this accurate. In my opinion is just an insult to the reader’s intelligence to come up with numbers like 59.7 % or 73.8%.
Calculations like these to the decimal point should always be taken with a grain of salt. Come on you guys can't be serious. This has nothing to do with scientific method whatsoever. Portraying false accuracy to the susceptible reader is not the way to go. I'd like to see how they came up with that number. They probably wanted to sound more serious by publishing the exact number their calculator fed them but in the end this just shows how unprofessional they are. Hell maybe they just made up those numbers. (Say a 75 is now 73,8 and 60 becomes 59,7 to sound better.
agreed!! lol
Like the old saying goes, "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure."
eh?
I think if they re-examine the market in 6-8 months things may look a little better for blu-ray. Why? Because the HDTV switchover will force a segment of the market to upgrade to digital technology. As that happens, and more HDTVs end up in the market, blu-ray will get a little boost. It's a more natural sale to push a high-def disc player to someone whose getting a high-def TV. Especially if prices fall during that same period. Of course, it's likely to be tempered some if the economy keeps heading south.
However, if some other technology, perhaps like flash ram based media cards, drops even more in price and goes up in capacity, the disc as media could be facing a tough battle. How'd it be to buy your movies on a card perhaps the size of a credit card? Small, durable, easy to store, easy to use. Players would be easier to build, with no moving parts to break, so likely cheaper. And upgrades in the future wouldn't require new laser tech or disc media, just higher density media, which can already be greater in density than the 25/50GB of a blu-ray. SDHC cards, tiny little suckers, have already hit 32GB. How many of those could you fit on a cradit card sized piece of media?
So while I think it's possible blu-ray can make it, they better stop screwing around, or somebody is going to surpass them.
However, if some other technology, perhaps like flash ram based media cards, drops even more in price and goes up in capacity, the disc as media could be facing a tough battle. How'd it be to buy your movies on a card perhaps the size of a credit card? Small, durable, easy to store, easy to use. Players would be easier to build, with no moving parts to break, so likely cheaper. And upgrades in the future wouldn't require new laser tech or disc media, just higher density media, which can already be greater in density than the 25/50GB of a blu-ray. SDHC cards, tiny little suckers, have already hit 32GB. How many of those could you fit on a cradit card sized piece of media?
So while I think it's possible blu-ray can make it, they better stop screwing around, or somebody is going to surpass them.
I tend to agree with the lookout. I don't see why bluray would just up and dissappear in 3 years. Bluray is the HD format now. The quality is top notch. There is no need to bring in another format unless people have theatre sized tv's. I think that gives blu-ray a pretty long window to operate in. A few articles bring up digital downloads, but due to the size to HD movies, they're either 25-50gb's a pop, or the streaming company has to cut quality to bring the size down. Even at 8 gig movie files, alot of isp's are capping usage. I think that will slow down digital growth, and leave a demand for physical media. The older HD technology goes, the cheaper it gets. I think blu-ray adoption will be gradual, but it'll eventually surpass dvd
- guest
- Posts: 15288
- Posted on: 07 Feb 09 04:06
how many times must I say this!!!
My dvd holds 50 gigs YOUR betaray dvd holds 50 gigs so which one looks better?? DUHHH none they are both the friken same ...This is why betaray will never take off like dvd did . How did sony ever pull this blindness on consumers is beyond me!!!! Sony does not have anything !!! all they do is have a DVD that holds 50 gigs and this DVD has several layers hence the bigger size The HD-DVD vs BlueRay showed exactly the same quality its the same friken data of course it will look the same, codecs were almost identical.
Bottom line is BlueRay is not a new thing it's a lame ass old idea and HD-Dvd was the same thing . How can you justify HD when all their doing is adding more layers to a standard dvdrom?? WTF is wrong with you people!!! Sony needs "the laser" to read through the different layers.. I will never buy into this betaray nonsense period!!!
My dvd holds 50 gigs YOUR betaray dvd holds 50 gigs so which one looks better?? DUHHH none they are both the friken same ...This is why betaray will never take off like dvd did . How did sony ever pull this blindness on consumers is beyond me!!!! Sony does not have anything !!! all they do is have a DVD that holds 50 gigs and this DVD has several layers hence the bigger size The HD-DVD vs BlueRay showed exactly the same quality its the same friken data of course it will look the same, codecs were almost identical.
Bottom line is BlueRay is not a new thing it's a lame ass old idea and HD-Dvd was the same thing . How can you justify HD when all their doing is adding more layers to a standard dvdrom?? WTF is wrong with you people!!! Sony needs "the laser" to read through the different layers.. I will never buy into this betaray nonsense period!!!
Well yah? HD needs more space so you need more space per layer to make it feasible. Both HD-DVD and Bluray did that. Its higher resolution, all it is is a way to get more space on a disc the same size. Its the exact same thing that happened between CD and DVD. A CD only holds 800 megs, where a DVD holds 4.7gb? You need the extra space for video data, just like on blu-ray/hd dvd you need around 25 gigs minimum to hold the HD data. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. They just needed more space. So they fund a way to cram more gb's per layer. an HD-DVD holds 3 times the amound per layer as a dvd, and bluray about 5 times...
@coolios DVD holds 8.5GB max (Dual Layer). Not sure where you get this "dvd holds 50gig" claim from. Furhermore, Blu-ray (not BlueRay) is here to stay and no amount of whining will change that. I'm not a big fan of the format but I'm also not blind in thinking Sony will kill the format or users won't adopt it when prices drop.
coolios = BIG fail!!
That saying comes from when people would make an argument on behalf of something, using statistics. Near the end of their speech, they would often use the expression, "The figures don't lie!".
Hence the comeback, "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure." ("Figure" in the second case being a seldom-used colloquialism for the verb "to calculate".)
Hence the comeback, "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure." ("Figure" in the second case being a seldom-used colloquialism for the verb "to calculate".)
What is your point ? Yes its a larger capacity optical disc. No kidding. How can you justify HD video ? Are you joking ? HD is here to stay and SD is thankfully dying .
How can you justiify running your PC monitor at 1920x1200 when you can just run at 640x480. Come on...
How can you justiify running your PC monitor at 1920x1200 when you can just run at 640x480. Come on...
cheers!
LOL what DVD holds 50GB's? I need to get me those discs!! Bluray is not DVD just like DVD isn't CD either. They have fundamental hardware differences. The only interest in Bluray for me is the storage aspect and nothing more. 50GB discs would be great to back up to if the media was cheaper let say around a $1.
This is funny...most of these replies say the thing that determines if Blu-ray wins....is the Blu-ray burners and media. LOL....I guess Piracy is what helps a format win???
Who said anything about piracy slick?
- guest
- Posts: 15288
- Posted on: 08 Feb 09 02:28
I find it funny how everybody says HD and Blu-ray is here to stay. Well if you go into any store there still more DVD then there is Blu-ray and alot who buy HDTV. Dont even buy it for the HD. But Simply because dosnt weigh a ton. Hell 1 in 5 of HD owners dont even see a difference. I remember when people said that DVD-Audio was going take over CD. That didnt happen. If HD and Blu-ray are here to stay. Its only because its being force down peoples throats. I like playing old games and considering that theres so many problems with upconverting SD content on HDtv. Ill hold off on getting hdtv untill they come up with a HDtv thats fully backward compatable with SD. And dont see that happening any time soon.
- guest
- Posts: 15288
- Posted on: 08 Feb 09 12:25
Absolute silly theory. It's illogical to think HDTV owners bought with "weight" as their primary concern. Even if that were so, it only opens the possibilities of video content offered to them, and, why they're would be no need to test new waters would there? HD>SD, fact, stop deluding yourself otherwise. And also, you might see it as forced when in possibility it might be, progression?
@ Macoman
you can't buy a SD tv now, they're almost extinct! and of course there is still more DVD than Bluray, its not like they both came out at the same time is it? theres near enough 8-9 years difference between the two formats.
The weight issue is a non starter, its mostly 1) keeping up with tech, 2)more compact at the rear, and 3)looks good!
I'm sorry, but with a HD source, anyone can see the difference. hell, my dad is going 58, and going blind, yet when i plugged my ps3 into his 37" tv, and put on the new rambo bluray in, his tongue was hanging out, needless to say he was impressed and bought one for his xmas(to watch blurays, youger bro plays the games lol)
your comment abut getting a HDtv thats backward compatible with SD just shows how dumb/uninformed you really are and not the TV that would cause problems, its the HD upscaling source.
i've never had a problem with DVD upscaling, so you're blettering out of your never regions i'm afraid.
@vikampion
Yeap, to a certain degree you are right, but you also shouldn't confuse piracy, with wishing to back up ones library.http://www.cdfreaks.com/jochem/../im...ies/2/wink.gif
you can't buy a SD tv now, they're almost extinct! and of course there is still more DVD than Bluray, its not like they both came out at the same time is it? theres near enough 8-9 years difference between the two formats.
The weight issue is a non starter, its mostly 1) keeping up with tech, 2)more compact at the rear, and 3)looks good!
I'm sorry, but with a HD source, anyone can see the difference. hell, my dad is going 58, and going blind, yet when i plugged my ps3 into his 37" tv, and put on the new rambo bluray in, his tongue was hanging out, needless to say he was impressed and bought one for his xmas(to watch blurays, youger bro plays the games lol)
your comment abut getting a HDtv thats backward compatible with SD just shows how dumb/uninformed you really are and not the TV that would cause problems, its the HD upscaling source.
i've never had a problem with DVD upscaling, so you're blettering out of your never regions i'm afraid.
@vikampion
Yeap, to a certain degree you are right, but you also shouldn't confuse piracy, with wishing to back up ones library.http://www.cdfreaks.com/jochem/../im...ies/2/wink.gif
- guest
- Posts: 15288
- Posted on: 09 Feb 09 06:17
I wonder how long it will be before Blu-Ray wins out over DVD the same way it won out over HD-DVD. Sony paying the major movie studios another half billion dollars to only release movies on Blu-Ray. Maybe Sony will go bankrupt and won't be able to do that again.
- guest
- Posts: 15288
- Posted on: 09 Feb 09 10:39
Well yeah Blu-ray probably will eventually take over from DVD, once the price gets sensible. As for Video On Demand competition, that'll only take over when the deal is a fixed fee per month for watching as much as you like, unfortunately for VOD, their business model is a pay per view one. A model which any consumer with any sense would be a complete mug to sign upto.
@ compuser, the way you're saying it, is that sony owns the rights to bluray, when its owned by a big group of companies!! even if sony did go down the pan, the other groups would still push on with the format. people have got to stop looking at just sony when slagging off bluray!
fact is, i actually believe that if MS had put the HD-DVD inside their machines, then that format would have definately have beaten bluray. Hell, i know i would of bought one instead of the PS3 if it had it in at the start(as well as wireless, HDMI).
as me and shaolin007 has already said in this post, wait for the consumer media, and rewriters go down in price, then bluray wil be a more attractive buy!
fact is, i actually believe that if MS had put the HD-DVD inside their machines, then that format would have definately have beaten bluray. Hell, i know i would of bought one instead of the PS3 if it had it in at the start(as well as wireless, HDMI).
as me and shaolin007 has already said in this post, wait for the consumer media, and rewriters go down in price, then bluray wil be a more attractive buy!
Some of the reply posts say how they can fit all their "Movies" onto a Blu-ray disk. Well, with today's Laws, it's illegal to put rip any movie that has copy protection on it. So therefore, doing this would be illegal, even if it is dealing with movies you bought. Also, This article is mainly talking about bought blu-ray movies. So if people don't buy any blu-ray movies, and just buy burners, that won't help blu-ray.
I'm not sure, but I think there is a law that says the studios are not allowed to phase out a format if it has a certain percentage of marketshare. Therefore, they can't just force consumers to upgrade to blu-ray by stopping DVD production. (I'm pretty sure about this, but not 100%, if anyone knows any diff, say otherwise)
- guest
- Posts: 15288
- Posted on: 12 Feb 09 09:36
Dual-layer DVDs have been on the market for years now, but everyone still burns to single-layer DVDs. Why is that, Steve-O? Cost, speed, and reliability. There is a market for Blu-ray as data storage media, but the big pie-in-the-sky for Sony is the movie and entertainment market. I'm usually quick to adopt new technology, but even I haven't jumped on the Blu-ray bandwagon. That's a bad sign for Sony. 
err, yeah it will, if you can burn a bluray movie onto another disk i.e pirating, then it will help push bluray blank media, and in turn push the format! not all of us want to copy our disks and then sell them on, some of us just want to keep our paid for collection on the shelf where it can't get scratched!
and I don't care if its illegal to backup my dvd collection! I paid for the license to watch the film, So I should be allowed to make a backup of it in case the disk gets scratched?
Also the articule says 'bluray to dominate in 10 years'
where does it say in the title about it being movies only?
and I don't care if its illegal to backup my dvd collection! I paid for the license to watch the film, So I should be allowed to make a backup of it in case the disk gets scratched?
Also the articule says 'bluray to dominate in 10 years'
where does it say in the title about it being movies only?
you're under the illusion that its sony alone that pushes bluray! you're wrong, there are other big companies pushing for it too. also, you only need to burn a movie to DVD 4.7 coz you're not copying the extras /compressing the movie, whereas HD will not fit on a DVD unless you compress it soo much, then you'll be as well watching it in SD!
so whats your point?
so whats your point?
also can i just point out, that if you want to be taken seriously on this site, maybe you should register?
also can i just point out, that if you want to be taken seriously on this site, maybe you should register?
- guest
- Posts: 15288
- Posted on: 13 Feb 09 00:53
Macroman is right when he said the average viewer is happy with sd.
As a TV engineer, it always amazed me how people would put up with the grottiest pictures when I went to repair their sets. As long as the average Joe can see the ball in his sport and the wives can drool over the soapie stars, that's all most people care about. High-Def will always be a niche market, because the average person just doesn't care, no matter how much we try to push it, it won't happen. You can't change human nature, and Hi-Def is just too hard, too much effort for the average person. I give blu-ray 5 years before solid-state devices take over storage in computers and from there it will permeate into the consumer arena.
As a TV engineer, it always amazed me how people would put up with the grottiest pictures when I went to repair their sets. As long as the average Joe can see the ball in his sport and the wives can drool over the soapie stars, that's all most people care about. High-Def will always be a niche market, because the average person just doesn't care, no matter how much we try to push it, it won't happen. You can't change human nature, and Hi-Def is just too hard, too much effort for the average person. I give blu-ray 5 years before solid-state devices take over storage in computers and from there it will permeate into the consumer arena.
well, if my fathers anything to go by, they'll take it up with open arms! I remember when DVD had just came out, he wasn't that bothered with it, however, when i took the ps3 up to show him a bluray, he couldn't wait to go buy 1 for himself for xmas! and my dad is a technophobe! lol!
solid state devices will not come of age, i think too many folk think of SSD in the same light as 12" laser disc! a bit alien, at least a bluray disc looks the same as a normal DVD! and until they come down in to the same sort of prices as a normal hard drive, with the same amount of gig's, they won't be going anywhere!
solid state devices will not come of age, i think too many folk think of SSD in the same light as 12" laser disc! a bit alien, at least a bluray disc looks the same as a normal DVD! and until they come down in to the same sort of prices as a normal hard drive, with the same amount of gig's, they won't be going anywhere!
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