Analyst: SSD prices don’t necessarily drop in 2014

Posted 17 January 2014 20:08 CEST by Jan Willem Aldershoff

Storage analyst Jim Handy expects price per GB of SSDs will be around $0.75 per GB this year,  however supply shortages might drive up the price. As differentiation in the SSD market is currently nearly non-existent, most SSD brands compete on price. SSDs use NAND flash memory which is also used in smartphones and tablets. Shortage of NAND will drive up prices of SSDs.

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While NAND flash memory prices were declining during last year, they were stabilized in September 2013. A fire at South Korean memory giant SK Hynix destroyed a fair share of DRAM memory production capacity which caused a shortage in DRAM supply.  Due to that, some manufacturers decided to switch from NAND to DRAM manufacturing.

With less NAND production capacity available,  pricing stabilized. Also the large amount of mobile phones and tablets sold (like the iPhone 5 and Samsung Galaxy S4) helped to stabilize the price of NAND memory.

With the obvious benefits of SSDs over HDDs (speed, power consumption) and popularity of smartphones and tablets,  the demand for NAND will remain high. The question will be, will manufacturers successfully find ways to cut costs and will they allocate enough capacity to meet the demand? Or will they artificially keep prices high by only providing a tight supply of NAND to the market…



alan1476
Administrator, Software Editor and Head of Promotions
Posted on: 17 Jan 14 19:38
I think .75gb is fair, but you will still be able to get really good SSDs on sales for .50gb , prices are dropping even the OCZ Vector 240gb 150 is only 214USD on Newegg and that is a really high end SSD.
0 Agree

tmc8080
MyCE Resident
Posted on: 18 Jan 14 00:09
shortage of NAND will be short lived... there are HUGE factories coming online for making ALL kinds of flash memory in China!! The capacity to make flash will more than QUADRUPLE over the next 2 years and that is if no other factories are made anywhere else around the world.. most likely other factories of smaller capacity are also being built as well.

BTW, smaller factories in the UK, South America and greater Asia excluding S.Korea are also probably able to scale up eating Korea's market share.
0 Agree

Kenshin
MyCE Resident
Posted on: 21 Jan 14 20:57
That hardly looks like an opinion from an expert. Whoever Jim Handy is or was or supposed to be, he probably knows and understands nothing about NAND.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MyCE's quote of what Jim Handy's supposed to have said
While NAND flash memory prices were declining during last year, they were stabilized in September 2013. A fire at South Korean memory giant SK Hynix destroyed a fair share of DRAM memory production capacity which caused a shortage in DRAM supply. Due to that, some manufacturers decided to switch from NAND to DRAM manufacturing.
With less NAND production capacity available, pricing stabilized. Also the large amount of mobile phones and tablets sold (like the iPhone 5 and Samsung Galaxy S4) helped to stabilize the price of NAND memory.

Did he say that? Destroyed what? Wherever was the source confirming such destruction? A fire cause vast amount of smoke at a Chinese DRAM plant? That hardly was a "fair share" of the DRAM market in the first place. And there were enough chips in stock - which means OVERSUPPLY, not shortage.
0 Agree

Kenshin
MyCE Resident
Posted on: 21 Jan 14 21:07
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmc8080
shortage of NAND will be short lived... there are HUGE factories coming online for making ALL kinds of flash memory in China!! The capacity to make flash will more than QUADRUPLE over the next 2 years and that is if no other factories are made anywhere else around the world.. most likely other factories of smaller capacity are also being built as well.

BTW, smaller factories in the UK, South America and greater Asia excluding S.Korea are also probably able to scale up eating Korea's market share.


That sounds as if South Korea had stopped investing more into NAND. The opposite's true. Both Samsung and Hynix in 2014 and beyond will continue to expand NAND production at much faster rates than they've ever done with DRAM. The trend's South Korea's increasing its share of the global NAND market, not diminishing. Actually, South Korea's NAND share has never so far reached 50%. NAND was once a market divided between the United States (Intel and AMD mostly) and Japan (Toshiba mostly). South Korea moved in earnest into NAND after Mr. Hwang Chang-Gyu (trained at the Stanford University and worked for Intel as an advisor in the 1980s) became the head of Samsung's memory business (with the title of President) in 2004.
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