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‘Future of DVD’ study: Disc-based media isn’t going away soon

Posted at 07 April 2011 19:23 CET by Justin_Massoud

As more and more consumers realize the convenience and relative inexpensiveness of streaming video on-demand, the worry that disc-based physical media such as Blu-ray – a still-nascent format when compared to its younger brother DVD – will suffer and then die off intensifies. The very concept of premium VOD, which brings just-released movies from theaters to homes in mere weeks instead of months, has companies like AMC up in arms.

However, a new study alleges that despite the industry push toward digital distribution and rising adoption rate in homes of services like Netflix over recent years, Blu-ray, DVD and online content can all still get along.

An exclusive study culled from myriad data compiled by industry analysts like the Consumer Electronics Association was made available to entertainment news site Home Media Magazine today. Despite past (and future) gains made by digital distribution, the study says it may not overtake the physical distribution model until 2021 for various reasons. Moreover, DVD still has some life in it — contrary to some previous reports.

“The portability and relatively inexpensive price point of the DVD help expand the lifespan of physical media,” reads the “Future of DVD” study. “Additionally, purchases of Blu-ray Discs and players jumped 86% in 2010, giving further evidence that physical media as the primary home video medium will take substantially longer to fade out than the demise of VHS a decade ago.”

Considering how successful the 15-year-old DVD format continues to be, it’s unlikely to disappear anytime soon. The medium’s lingering popularity may also bode well for its successor’s lifespan, suggests the study.

Blu-ray continues to make headway with the unenviable task of supplanting DVD as the physical medium of the masses, and though 2010 was certainly a year worth celebrating for the 5-year-old format some have raised concerns over whether manufacturers will be capable of matching rising consumer demand in the HD platform.

Interest in DVD content via rentals will in 2014 resemble 2008 levels according to the report, garnering “three times the marketshare as digital rentals in 2014.”

The study also noted the discrepancy between what American consumers spend on digital content (approximately $2 billion) and what they spend on traditional physical products (around $18 billion) as support for its conclusion that “the obsolescence of physical media within the home video market is not a near-term event.” (via Home Media Magazine)

Do you plan on ditching physical mediums any time soon? Or have you already gone digital? We’d love to read your input.

There are 13 comments

ivid
MyCE Resident
Posted on: 07 Apr 11 19:47
    I'll be using blu ray for many years to come.
    blegs38552
    MyCE Member
    Posted on: 07 Apr 11 22:09
      Don't see myself leaving DVD/Blu-Ray any time soon. Although I use DVR and On-Demand extensively with my FIOS service, physical media still have it's place, and will probably continue to for the immediate future. I do plan, sooner than later, to get a Roku player, or a similar device in teh not too distant future, since I am an Amazon Prime subscriber, which makes this a no brainer, since I already pay for the video privilege. However, unless Amazon diastically increase their offerings, there will be too many videos that fall outside of their service for it to replace physical media, at least for me.
      RCM
      MyCE Resident
      Posted on: 07 Apr 11 23:17
        Plus there's always having to transfer files to one computer from another (say target computer has no internet access) plus a blank optical disc is a lot cheaper then a flash drive in some cases, you can rewrite RW media 100s of thousands of times, while flash you can rewrite a limited amount of time! I will be using optical media for a long time!
        redk9258
        MyCE Junior Member
        Posted on: 08 Apr 11 02:32
          Quote:
          Originally Posted by RCM
          Plus there's always having to transfer files to one computer from another (say target computer has no internet access) plus a blank optical disc is a lot cheaper then a flash drive in some cases, you can rewrite RW media 100s of thousands of times, while flash you can rewrite a limited amount of time! I will be using optical media for a long time!
          I put my money on a quality flash drive over any rewritable media.
          chickenlittle
          MyCE Rookie
          Posted on: 08 Apr 11 05:01
            still sticking with dvds.

            cant store all my data on a hdd

            if a 2tb hdd crashes, i lose 2tb of stuff.

            if i scratch a disk, i lose 4gb of data

            no need to say which i would rather experience
            RCM
            MyCE Resident
            Posted on: 08 Apr 11 07:33
              Quote:
              Originally Posted by chickenlittle
              still sticking with dvds.

              cant store all my data on a hdd

              if a 2tb hdd crashes, i lose 2tb of stuff.

              if i scratch a disk, i lose 4gb of data

              no need to say which i would rather experience
              and you can always have that disk polished so it's readable again, usually for really cheap, while data recovery on a hard drive is VERY expensive!
              redk9258
              MyCE Junior Member
              Posted on: 08 Apr 11 13:54
                Quote:
                Originally Posted by RCM
                and you can always have that disk polished so it's readable again, usually for really cheap, while data recovery on a hard drive is VERY expensive!
                Polishing won't fix a disc that is rotted from the inside out. A second HDD with a backup of the first seems like a good alternative to me. 2TB drives cost what a spindle of DVDs cost a couple of years ago and keep coming down.
                blegs38552
                MyCE Member
                Posted on: 08 Apr 11 14:51
                  External HDD is a good alternative too.
                  tmc8080
                  MyCE Resident
                  Posted on: 09 Apr 11 14:14
                    The diversity of media including hard drives are VIABLE options. I recently seen a 3TB hard drive on sale for $129.99 with free shipping!! Even DVD's would have a hard time competing on price considering the acutal task of recording 100's of single layer dvd's vs just slapping data on a hard drive (or two, one as backup). While dvd's have a slight edge in cost on the single layer, the time & convenience factor weighs heavily. Dual layer and blue ray costs aren't really worth converting data just yet.. even though I do record data to blu ray. It's an expensive media $1+ per 25gb disc!

                    Tablet computers make online storage a better option for consumers as well. Once you have about 16 - 32gb in onboard/fash media storage, you can put the rest in the cloud and swap in/out wirelesly. In this sense if you have an HD move you want to watch on a tablet, BLU-RAY becomes outmoded.

                    This is why as demand drops, so will the prices.. never before has so many kinds of storage options been available. It's also pretty safe to assume most online / cloud storage is taken care of by hard drive arrays, not tape and/or optical disc (unless it's mission critical data, for extra security).
                    olddancer
                    MyCE Senior Member
                    Posted on: 11 Apr 11 20:03
                      Let's see, $5.00 to rent a movie Disk at my local Rogers video times 1 movie per week equals $20.00.
                      Versus
                      $9.00 per month for Netflix plus $40.00 for exceeding my 40gig limit plus $20.00 per month to upgrade my connection speed to something that maybe works in real time equals $69.00!
                      Five bucks a disk for rental is cheap and works in real time!
                      AIRBUD7
                      MyCE Member
                      Posted on: 12 Apr 11 15:12
                        Blu-ray(1.50 25Gb) Dual Layer Dvd(1 dollar 8.5Gb) for ISO files(PC games,programs 4.3Gb or more) single layer(.50cent) for file's...Can't beat the price...Anything electronic(Flash-based drives,SSD,HHDs)can and WILL go bad eventually! (Trust me I have a shop full of bad drive's) However DVDs(unless you play frisbee with them) will last a lifetime! (inside a sleeve)?
                        bean55
                        MyCE Resident
                        Posted on: 12 Apr 11 16:07
                          Quote:
                          Originally Posted by olddancer
                          Let's see, $5.00 to rent a movie Disk at my local Rogers video times 1 movie per week equals $20.00.
                          Versus
                          $9.00 per month for Netflix plus $40.00 for exceeding my 40gig limit plus $20.00 per month to upgrade my connection speed to something that maybe works in real time equals $69.00!
                          Five bucks a disk for rental is cheap and works in real time!
                          I pay only $3.50 per movie rental and buy as cheap as $5.00

                          40gig limit would be heaven compared to my 20gig limit

                          I will be using disc for the long foreseeable future
                          tmc8080
                          MyCE Resident
                          Posted on: 14 Apr 11 19:10
                            Optical media won't last forever. It used to be made of METALIC film-type materials(back in the cd-r days), but the cost associated with that are sky-high compared with ORGANIC CHEMICAL solutions slapped between two pieces of carbon plastic. Produced for pennies, but sold for upto $25 each (for high speed blu ray DL discs) .

                            You will probably get 5+ years with GOOD media, recorded under OPTIMAL conditions, but blank media is not generally the same thing as PRESSED discs. Those have a completely different process which works more like engraving than optical recording.. they get stamped out less than a minute, not hundreds of minutes for a blue ray 50gb DL. Pressed media will last 10-15 years. PRESSED CD-R originals kept in mint condition might still work today.. but many of the chemical based cd-r media are deteriorated beyond crc specs. Home use for cd-r was born around 1995. Discs of that era would be almost 16 years old. I've read no posts on this or any other forum that DATA discs recorded then are still in readable condition.

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