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Peer to peer file sharing to double in 4 years

Posted at 11 June 2010 08:00 CET by Randomus

The ongoing battle between copyright holders and peer-to-peer piracy isn’t proving to be effective, with the most recent Cisco Visual Networking Index indicating peer to peer (P2P) traffic is expected to grow through 2014.

The forecast indicates traffic will increase up to 7 petabytes of traffic per month, with BitTorrent expected to lead all other P2P services.

It wasn’t long ago when there was a concern the majority of Internet bandwidth would be used for file sharing and P2P use.  In 2005, some studies indicated up to 75 percent of all Internet use would be through P2P, but that number was lowered to 39 percent by the end of 2009.

By the end of 2010, online video traffic is expected to overtake P2P traffic as the largest type of Internet traffic — but that number will bounce back and forth between P2P and online video.  Through the end of 2014, P2P traffic is predicted to drop 17 percent further — but it’s not P2P traffic declining — it’s due to total Internet traffic, which is expected to drastically increase over the next four years.

The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) has blamed P2P as one of the leading causes behind the demise of music CDs — though there are many other significant problems for their recent sales struggles.  The RIAA likely loses sleep over the thought of P2P traffic increasing, even though it is doing more to try and crack down on unauthorized file sharing.

The RIAA is trying to get P2P client LimeWire closed down for good, with lawyers suggesting that the service owes the industry up to 1.5 trillion dollars. On the flip side, a report from the United Kingdom says that piracy may not directly affect revenues.

Whatever your stance is on peer to peer file sharing, this struggle between copyright holders and online file swappers will continue to go on and on, especially as P2P traffic increases.

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There are 9 comments

MyCE Resident
Posted on: 11 Jun 10 14:33
    Slowing the growth of (let alone reversing it) P2P sharing is like trying to stop the tide from rising and lowering. Instead the RIAA, MPAA, software companies etc. should figure out how to harness it for their own profit.
    Blown to smitherines
    Posted on: 11 Jun 10 14:43

      With the global recession ... all those chinese manufactured products have to go somewhere ... and the affluence of the chinese & indians with jobs, where everyone in the western world jobs have been outsourced to, has increased to the point that much of the population will be online ..... doubled in 4 years .. ROTFLMAO ... P2P will be 10x what it is now, and I suspect that's extremely conservative.

      The RIAA, MPAA & software companies are fending off an avalanche with an umbrella ... it's almost comical ... like the coyote in the roadrunner cartoons.
      It's time for them to capitalize on P2P .... or at least get the hint, and improve their products & pricing.

      Any unofficial file from P2P is an inferior copy ... except .... official products waste 10minutes of my life EVERY TIME i put a disc in, because of copyright infringement bull$hit, FBI warnings (they have no jurisdiction here anyway, so the commercial is a toothless tiger), and recently .. freaking commercials for other movies & garbage that if i wanted, I'd already have it. And worse is that there is NO WAY for people to skip this garbage.

      Downloaded files get straight to the movie ... in 2-3 seconds.
      MyCE Senior Member
      Posted on: 11 Jun 10 18:08
        I still dont quite understand why people are still using p2p crap when there are so many other places to download stuff, and the contents of the rar file is more reliable.

        That, and the lawsuits that seem to be still around. Who would want to take such a chance?
        MyCE Resident
        Posted on: 11 Jun 10 23:22
          I think P2P traffic doubling in 4 years is a decent estimate. Remember, not everyone knows how to use BitTorrent or a P2P application. The majority of users just don't know what to do...
          Blown to smitherines
          Posted on: 12 Jun 10 05:14
            Originally Posted by Zzyzxroad
            I still dont quite understand why people are still using p2p crap when there are so many other places to download stuff, and the contents of the rar file is more reliable.
            More reliable than what?

            A bare MKV or avi cannot be passworded, and you can play a partial file for verification that it is what it says it is. Rar's can require passwords, cannot be played prior to the entire file(s) being downloaded and may or may not be what the uploader says it is.

            Torrents are true P2P. There's no centralized server required. You just need to get you hands on the original torrent file.

            If you mention usenet ... it's not just a central server, but a large network of usenet servers .. each server keeping access logs ... and you have to pay for usenet access.

            The point of pirating content is that you don't have to pay for it.

            You'd have to be crazy, to pay for songs/movies/books which you don't own, and can be prosecuted for possessing. Crazy.
            MyCE Senior Member
            Posted on: 13 Jun 10 08:37
              Wonder how long before the MPAA / RIAA / BSA start to go after the Usenet providers.. ??
              Blown to smitherines
              Posted on: 13 Jun 10 10:35
                They don't need to .. they just go after the first seeder ... it's logged.
                MyCE Resident
                Posted on: 15 Jun 10 23:18
                  Originally Posted by paulw2
                  Wonder how long before the MPAA / RIAA / BSA start to go after the Usenet providers.. ??
                  They've targeted Usenet in the past.

                  MyCE Rookie
                  Posted on: 12 Aug 10 19:53
                    So.. let's follow the logic here: I can buy a used CD or DVD off Amazon/eBay from a private seller, but that's okay, even though the RIAA/MPAA aren't making money off of these either.. so, in the future are they going to go after anyone who sells/buys used CD/DVD's, too? How about prosecuting public libraries for offering CD's and DVD's to borrow? How about my friend who lets me borrow a CD/DVD to watch in my home? Anyone can make a copy of any CD/DVD in existence. In my mind, their arguments are inconsistent. What are they really trying to prosecute here? Volume and convenience?

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