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Toshiba lowers NAND production with 30% – to make it more expensive

Posted at 24 July 2012 13:22 CEST by Jan Willem Aldershoff

Toshiba today announced that it will reduce the production of NAND flash memory at its Yokkaichi Operation plant in Mie Prefecture, Japan with about 30%. The reason for this is because the supply is too high compared to the demand and therefor prices are going down. Good for us, not for them.

Oversupply of NAND flash memory in the retail channels, used in e.g. USB sticks and memory cards, has resulted in continual price declines since the beginning of this year.  With the drop in production, or adjustment as Toshiba calls it, Toshiba hopes to restore the balance between supply and demand.

Toshiba also added that it closely monitors the memory market and will increase production when the demand requires this, it expects that the demand will grow this year due to growth in sales of PCs and smart-phones. In 2008, Toshiba and Sandisk also temporarily decreased production for the same reasons and increased production later again.

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There are 7 comments

bean55
MyCE Resident
Posted on: 24 Jul 12 14:14
    Did anyone not see that coming
    ChristineBCW
    MyCE Die Hard
    Posted on: 24 Jul 12 14:34
      We need those German villagers - the ones with torches and pitchforks, storming Frankenstein's castle... Yes, 64Gb USBs were hitting the $30 range. And everyone's seeing Seagate's historic profits showing up after the flood "disaster" in Thailand's HDD plants.
      BradWright
      MyCE Member
      Posted on: 24 Jul 12 16:40
        Any manufacturer that continuously produces more product than it sells will eventually go bankrupt. All you have to do is look at the world's car manufacturers to see that. Toshiba isn't cutting production to raise prices, they're doing it to stop the downward spiral of prices that is caused by too much inventory.
        tmc8080
        MyCE Resident
        Posted on: 26 Jul 12 16:59
          I disagree.. if these companies were truly innovating you'd see 256GB (usb 3.0) flash drives that could be hard drive replacements for your O/S!! As long as windows figures out a way to transition Program files directory so that it can span across flash & hard drives w/o missing a beat (ie when space on flash drive/hdd becomes low...)

          A 256gb usb 3.0 drive should be $99 by now.. instead they're still trying to jumpstart the prices of 64gb usb 2.0 drives.. and that genie's out of the bottle and once consumers are stuck in their mindset of a certain pricepoint, cutting production & making it more expensive will backfire & kill demand, just as hard drive prices are coming down...
          Kenshin
          MyCE Resident
          Posted on: 28 Jul 12 10:38
            Quote:
            Originally Posted by tmc8080
            I disagree.. if these companies were truly innovating you'd see 256GB (usb 3.0) flash drives that could be hard drive replacements for your O/S!! As long as windows figures out a way to transition Program files directory so that it can span across flash & hard drives w/o missing a beat (ie when space on flash drive/hdd becomes low...)

            A 256gb usb 3.0 drive should be $99 by now.. instead they're still trying to jumpstart the prices of 64gb usb 2.0 drives.. and that genie's out of the bottle and once consumers are stuck in their mindset of a certain pricepoint, cutting production & making it more expensive will backfire & kill demand, just as hard drive prices are coming down...
            USB 3.0 standard wasn't meant to replace SATA. Thunderbolt has a better prospect though only very expensive computers and monitors and storage devices so far have Thunderbolt support.

            Does anybody actually have and use 256GB USB 3.0 drives made of NAND? I have a 32GB USB 3.0 flash drive made of superior NAND chips with a brand name called 'AIO', but I paid nearly $99 for it. It's the fastest USB memory I ever tried, but any OCZ SSD I have is hundreds of times faster in terms of real world usage. The memory stick is not suitable for storing and playing MP3 files. I tried thousands of The Economist audiobook files on it, but it seemed taking forever as if it were Class 4 microSD on a smartphone.

            Whenever Toshiba reduces its share of market shipment, that share will quickly go to SK Hynix or Micron. Samsung was the one actually hesitating NAND production during the recent two years. That's why it lost share to Toshiba though still is No. 1 with Toshiba rapidly catching up.

            Several years ago, the market leaders of NAND were Intel and AMD. You can't find their names on the big five NAND manufacturer lists anymore because NAND is not profitable enough for them anymore. Intel's quickly exiting even from the venture with Micron while Micron sells only under one billion dollars of worth in a quarter - not big enough to make meaningful profits for Intel. Most of these NAND markets are OEM, manufacturers selling to other manufacturers, and brand names count little in the OEM market.
            tmc8080
            MyCE Resident
            Posted on: 29 Jul 12 04:49
              Intel exited the nand market because they saw the handwriting on the wall with tablet & mobile computing (iphone & foxconn as an alarm clock). Usb 3 is plenty of throughput and the interface of choice for next generations peripherals. I can't really see something such as HDMI & it's flavors being the interface of choice. Though, for it to really be robust, M/B manufacturers will need to have indepenent controllers.. USB 2.0 really sucks under multiple devices hammering performance.

              The theory that hard drive makers were going to stumble into the fall with scaled back HDD production proves not to be true.. they really will be back in volume by September.. despite higher energy prices. This takes pressure of NAND makers to innovate.. however, it's a great idea to one day have a 256-1tb usb 3.0 flash drive as the primary disk.. without robust innovation, the predictions of density are going to be WAY off..
              Kenshin
              MyCE Resident
              Posted on: 29 Jul 12 09:38
                Quote:
                Originally Posted by tmc8080
                ...
                Usb 3 is plenty of throughput and the interface of choice for next generations peripherals. I can't really see something such as HDMI & it's flavors being the interface of choice.
                ..
                Thunderbolt is not HDMI. The problem with it is the cost.

                USB 3.0 has only up to 5Gbit/s bandwidth which is smaller, slower than the maximum speeds very inexpensive SSD drives now in production and usage can actually write at. It was designed when not many really expected to see billions of SSD's writing at GB/s would be in use by the time USB 3.0 becomes ubiquitous. It is a successor to USB 2.0, but not meant to replace SATA. Thunderbolt can complement the various subset standards of SATA though. At least, it's more practical than IEEE 1394, or FireWire, Apple's version.

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