The home entertainment industry has undergone constant evolution and major change over the years as technology and consumer demands also change. The recent introduction of Blu-ray high-definition helped spark further innovation in the industry that now features streaming entertainment, set-top boxes, and game consoles all serving as new content mediums.
There is a significant amount of debate related to the longevity of 3D, but there are still critics that say it's just a fad. Other critics argue that it cannot even be considered a fad yet because it still hasn’t reached the mainstream. Trying to figure out 3D’s place in the industry today can help figure out how it will mature and expand in the future.
"3D won't fade because given the right circumstances it is a legitimate format. The challenge is it is still searching for that format," said Andy Marken, President of Marken Communications, in a statement to MyCE. "The issue right now is that ‘everyone’ is using it, often as a crutch to creativity rather than as a lift to creativity.”
3D technology, including 3DTVs and 3D Blu-ray players entering the home market, are still extremely new. Even though 3D has been shown off for a couple of years, it has especially been pushed the past four quarters where significant developments have been made.
"We are only in the second infancy of 3D and there have been some significant technological advances leading to this point that have enabled it. Stereoscopic today is very good and it can be a whole lot better. These advances will come but it will take time. 3D won't 'grow in popularity' as you state in your question but will settle into its place, its application and its acceptance."
There are numerous problems that new movie technologies need to deal with before seeing success, including price, market saturation, and content availability. Marken believes different things need to happen, but one aspect in particular that needs to increase is content.
"The driving force for more rapid 3D adoption will be content! 3DTV shows and more importantly for enthusiasts and early adopters events. Then it will be 3D, rich in-depth videos with alternative action/events. The third part of the equation will be economical pricing to the consumer and expeditious availability of entertainment content to the consumer."
Some analysts believe 1 in 5 TVs sold in 2013 will be feature 3D support, although that number has been called into question by some bloggers.
As noted previously on MyCE, 3D technology has proven to be popular during the IFA tech trade show in Berlin, Germany. I expect 3D to continue to rise in popularity, but hurdles have to be overcome before widespread adoption begins to take shape in the years to come.
I’m looking forward to watching the technology develop from a niche consumer product -- if it can -- towards a more mainstream product, trying to mimic the same growth Blu-ray has seen as of late. It may have a significant advantage since 3D can be adopted by other products, including notebooks from LG, 3D camcorders that remain pricey, and 3D digital photo cameras.
Software companies and game makers are beginning to slowly show support for 3D, even though Microsoft won't take the risk just yet.
One upcoming event that will significantly boost the base of 3D customers is the Sony PS3 firmware update for 3D Blu-ray support, scheduled for October. This update will create millions of 3D capable Blu-ray players in the form of PS3 consoles that are already by owned by consumers. Whether or not this will spur PS3 owners to buy new 3D capable HDTV's remains to be seen...
