The future of Blu-ray remains very confusing, as some analysts have predicted the format will have a hard time surving past 2012, which is a mere three years away. Other analysts predict Blu-ray to eventually topple DVD, but at the cost of several more years and millions in advertising from Sony and other Blu-ray supporters.
It's no wonder many people still aren't sure what's happening -- especially since Blu-ray had a rough 2008 -- but another published study indicates Blu-ray will have its time in the spotlight, but not any time soon. In 2008, DVDs still dominate the market with 97.1 percent of the market, but it will begin to continually lose market share to the high-definition Blu-ray format as the years pass.
SNL Kagan's "The State of Home Video" study predicts Blu-ray will have 59.7 percent market share in 2014, and will have $13.1 billion in estimated revenue. Three years later, in 2017, Blu-ray will have 73.8 percent and have $15.6 billion revenue.
"Blu-ray will be the driving force behind the video retail market throughout the next decade," SNL Kagan analyst Wade Holden said in a statement. "The current economic climate, however, will slow the growth of this new format and likely keep it from reaching the heights that it may have in better times. VOD services will continue to improve in both technology and content over the next decade and begin to draw consumers away from Blu-ray and DVD by 2017."
SNL Kagan predicts that the year 2010 will be the first year that Blu-ray sees success in the retail market space. According to the report, standalone Blu-ray player sales will grow from $255.4 million in 2008 up to $1.3 billion in 2010.
As manufacturers begin to lower prices on standalone Blu-ray players, which is something many of you have wanted for months, consumer demand should rise. There is still concern that digital downloads will continue to become popular and eventually trump physical formats, though various analysts have different opinions on the matter.
Despite all the uncertainty, it'll be extremely interesting to see how Blu-ray does over the next few years.
